Monday, December 8, 2008

It's time.
My focus is two fold. The captain of this move is the dollar or the euro, whichever is easier to follow. The second is to be sure all the soldiers follow. These are the dow, gold, dba(commodities), and oil.

Today is a conformation, stage 2, that this counter trend rally has legs. The first being the new lows in the above issues not confirmed by the MACD's. For those who prefer a little more, watch FXE, the euro. We are all familiar with charts and trends, watch for the breakout.

What's going on. Well, their giving money to the banks, insurance, the autos, their going to start works projects needing steel, iron and concrete. Let's extend unemployment, give a second tax refund, buy long bonds, if i left something out, i'm sorry.

Remember the mantra, stop houses from declining. Less you become confused, congressmen and senators are not benevolent. There will be tax savings, increases is inheritance levels, and lowered morgage rates, maybe 4.5%, over 20 years.

OK, how am i going to profit:
1. I'm purchasing for this 20% counter trend rally through the end of december
2. I currently am morgage free on a number of properties and my home, all will be remorgaged if rates get into the 4.5% range. This is subsidised money from the government.
3. I suspect there will be government subsidised training programs. I have some businesses. I will look to replace higher salaried employees with lower subsidised workers.

Part of surviving will be participating in the give aways that occur. Crying that everyone is getting some free money but me, will assure failure. Look, think, and if it's legal participate.

thegolddoctor

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

here we go

Long trip back from ft. lauderdale.

In my account, i've added some q's, 10%.
In my commodity acct., I just bought 10% march e-mini's.
If prices soften further this evening, i have orders for 10% small nasdaq.

I chickened out with tuesday's buy. I'm back and will keep adding. Hopefully some oih, slv, gdx.dba

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

KISS

It's really simple, how we got here and how we get out.
1. HOUSING.....Prices went up, far in excess on the average of the growth in the
American or world economy. Let's not cloud the basics with ya buts.
2. Housing prices started to decline. Thus in the end eventually making housing affordable to average incomes. This process is continuing.
3. The plan: Force money into the economy and continue doing so until housing prices stabilize. The housing price will stabilize because there will be more money created to buy houses.
4. Instead of deflation with housing prices going down faster then the economy causing an acceleration to the downside, we will force an inflation, due to money creation and an increase in housing prices. Non the less the increase in housing will not be as great as the percent increase in monies created in the beginning. Note if these two examples were a rubber band, the band is being stretched equally. It does not matter if the band is above or below "0", only the amount of stretch counts. At some juncture(no the band does not snap), it pulls closer together. This happens when the pricing of houses reaches historical norms for income verses home price. I hate to sound like those who preach reversion to the mean but that's the way it is.

OK, that was really simplistic, I apologize. Sometimes getting rid of the noise helps.

How am i going to profit:
1. I am not the only one to see the obvious.
2. Being a hero and investing early is for the bold and has been a virtue of the dying.
3. This time following trends will be correct. The wealth of the world will buy all I want to do is be part of it.
4. In fairness, I do make speculative bets. I guess, I love the action.

Hope you enjoyed my thoughts.

Monday, December 1, 2008

Soon, real soon

Safely waiting. In my last post, i said to buy tuesday. Today, i say lets wait. If the lows hold, there will be plenty of profits.

Let's follow trend lines only on the close.

This is going to be big and fast. Traders, i'll post when i buy commodities.

I'm really excited.