It's time.
My focus is two fold. The captain of this move is the dollar or the euro, whichever is easier to follow. The second is to be sure all the soldiers follow. These are the dow, gold, dba(commodities), and oil.

Today is a conformation, stage 2, that this counter trend rally has legs. The first being the new lows in the above issues not confirmed by the MACD's. For those who prefer a little more, watch FXE, the euro. We are all familiar with charts and trends, watch for the breakout.

What's going on. Well, their giving money to the banks, insurance, the autos, their going to start works projects needing steel, iron and concrete. Let's extend unemployment, give a second tax refund, buy long bonds, if i left something out, i'm sorry.

Remember the mantra, stop houses from declining. Less you become confused, congressmen and senators are not benevolent. There will be tax savings, increases is inheritance levels, and lowered morgage rates, maybe 4.5%, over 20 years.

OK, how am i going to profit:
1. I'm purchasing for this 20% counter trend rally through the end of december
2. I currently am morgage free on a number of properties and my home, all will be remorgaged if rates get into the 4.5% range. This is subsidised money from the government.
3. I suspect there will be government subsidised training programs. I have some businesses. I will look to replace higher salaried employees with lower subsidised workers.

Part of surviving will be participating in the give aways that occur. Crying that everyone is getting some free money but me, will assure failure. Look, think, and if it's legal participate.

thegolddoctor

here we go

Long trip back from ft. lauderdale.

In my account, i've added some q's, 10%.
In my commodity acct., I just bought 10% march e-mini's.
If prices soften further this evening, i have orders for 10% small nasdaq.

I chickened out with tuesday's buy. I'm back and will keep adding. Hopefully some oih, slv, gdx.dba

KISS

It's really simple, how we got here and how we get out.
1. HOUSING.....Prices went up, far in excess on the average of the growth in the
American or world economy. Let's not cloud the basics with ya buts.
2. Housing prices started to decline. Thus in the end eventually making housing affordable to average incomes. This process is continuing.
3. The plan: Force money into the economy and continue doing so until housing prices stabilize. The housing price will stabilize because there will be more money created to buy houses.
4. Instead of deflation with housing prices going down faster then the economy causing an acceleration to the downside, we will force an inflation, due to money creation and an increase in housing prices. Non the less the increase in housing will not be as great as the percent increase in monies created in the beginning. Note if these two examples were a rubber band, the band is being stretched equally. It does not matter if the band is above or below "0", only the amount of stretch counts. At some juncture(no the band does not snap), it pulls closer together. This happens when the pricing of houses reaches historical norms for income verses home price. I hate to sound like those who preach reversion to the mean but that's the way it is.

OK, that was really simplistic, I apologize. Sometimes getting rid of the noise helps.

How am i going to profit:
1. I am not the only one to see the obvious.
2. Being a hero and investing early is for the bold and has been a virtue of the dying.
3. This time following trends will be correct. The wealth of the world will buy all I want to do is be part of it.
4. In fairness, I do make speculative bets. I guess, I love the action.

Hope you enjoyed my thoughts.

Soon, real soon

Safely waiting. In my last post, i said to buy tuesday. Today, i say lets wait. If the lows hold, there will be plenty of profits.

Let's follow trend lines only on the close.

This is going to be big and fast. Traders, i'll post when i buy commodities.

I'm really excited.

God's Gift

I sense this is a once in a generation play.
#1 THE DOLLAR MUST FALL
a. We will wait for a moving average crossover and an MACD crossover
b. BE PATIENT

#2 Conservative Hedge
a. Follow rule #1!! Put in an equal dollar amount long the US dollar, and long 50% gold 50% silver.
b. More aggressive hedge- Replace gold and silver with GDX.

#3 For outwardly aggressive traders
a. Follow rule #1!!
b. Unhedged positions in equal amounts in the Euro, Gold, Silver, Oil, and Agriculture (I personally use commodity markets, not recommended due to extreme leverage in both directions)

This is the US CARRY TRADE. It's coming. It's going to be huge. It will last until Volker does his thing for which he was brought on the Obama team to do. If you want a chance to get rich, this is your chance.

-the gold doctor

Buy this weeks correction

Throw a dart and buy tuesday's low.
Trade for 15%. Long term investors should wait to short the
Dow from about 11,000.
Short and sweet, free money.
-the gold doctor

Inflation, Deflation, Confusion AHHHHHHH

The inflationists constantly remind us that it is the amount of money chasing goods that leads to inflation. It goes something like this... Simplistically, there are two people in the world, each one has one dollar. There is only one item to buy in the whole world, an apple. Eventually the bidding between these two people reaches one dollar because there is nothing else to buy in the world. Then I step in as the government trying to be re-elected, I flood the population by giving each of the two citizens one extra dollar. They now each have two dollars. The bidding for the apple continues and soon approaches the two dollar maximum. Simplistic inflation.

On a much larger scale, we must take into account the speed at which money is spent thus if there is two dollars in the world, but is spent electronically two times in the course of a day, the total real spendable money is the two dollars times the movement equally four dollars. Thus the deflationists suggest even though world central banks are producing trillions of electronic dollars, it is fundamentally not inflationary because, #1 the speed of the movement of money is decelerating, and #2 asset values for examples homes and stocks are going down in value. Both of these individuals are correct given the appropriate period of time for their reference. However the reality is the deflationists currently are correct because the movement of money and the loss of asset value far exceeds the electronic production of new money. An example...the current stock market losses are $8-10 trillion and the current housing losses are in the vicinity of $5 trillion. Even though governments have created a shocking $5 trillion of electronic money, by the above evidence we are clearly in a deflationary period.

Relative to the inflationists, the printed words continue to scream, "but they are printing more money." Although that statement today is true more money is being destroyed then created.

Let's look at tomorrow...
Two things will occur. At some point, the creation of money will equal or appear to be equalling the amount of money destroyed times the change in velocity of that money's movement. When that is perceived whether today or tomorrow or next year, inflationary forces will gain the strong upper hand.

How do we make money? There is no rush. Wait for the technical indicators of moving average crossovers and MACD's to tell us. Speculating is fun and fine but the real money will be made in catching the trend. The people that bought GLD, GDX, XLE etc.. have experienced losses of staggering proportions being 100% correct but one day early.

-The Doctor